Parting the mists of uncertainty
Embracing the unknown, and turning this project into a more concrete venture
Once again, it’s been a while since my last post, and longer still since I actually talked about aircraft design in a meaningful way. I should really give up promising to write to deadlines here – I’ve got way too much going on to commit to a regular schedule on this newsletter! Nevertheless, an(other) update is overdue, so that’s what today’s post is all about.
The mists of uncertainty
I’ve been working in some fashion on researching and figuring out aspects of this clean aviation project for 18 months. However, this summer and autumn, progress has slowed to a crawl. I felt like I was drowning in uncertainty – everything was unknown, either because I lacked the specialist knowledge to figure it out, or because I wasn’t clear on details around the mission or configuration of aircraft I was aiming for, so the right choice wasn’t apparent.
The best analogy I have for this situation is trying to pick a path through an unknown land. I can speak bits and pieces of the local language, but lack fluency. My destination is a far-away mountain – the peak is clearly visible, but the slopes and foothills ahead are shrouded in mist, and who knows what lies within?
I was reluctant to commit further without figuring out the details of what I was doing, but to do that I needed more information – a classic catch-22. In our voyage analogy, I knew the ultimate destination, but didn’t know which path of many to pick ahead. Aviation being a technical and engineering-centric domain, I believed if I had enough technical knowledge, I could reason which path to take from first principles.
Making the leap
Up to this point, the project has sat halfway between an abstract research effort and a commercial venture. I’ve felt for some time that a company would be the only way to bring a radical new zero-emissions aircraft design to reality, but given the high risks and uncertainty involved, I had been looking to de-risk further before committing fully to the commercial path.
I’m fortunate enough to have patient and experienced friends, several of whom have traversed the entrepreneurial path before. They helped me realise that uncertainty and risk is inevitable, especially when jumping into a new domain, and that I can’t figure out everything on my own. With their encouragement, in the last month I’ve changed tack significantly.
Rather than focus purely on the technological risks, I’ve been working up a business pitch, figuring out more concretely what I was trying to build, and for whom. This in turn helped focus my attention on markets, customers, timelines and funding – all areas I’d studied extensively but never applied to this problem. It forced me to make meaningful decisions and tie it together into a narrative that made sense, even where I didn’t have any clear answers.
To my surprise, this actually solidified a number of the major decisions I’d been agonising over for months – fixing an initial target market started to lock in key aircraft requirements, which in turn dictated design choices from fuel to aircraft sizing.
Another benefit of having a concrete pitch and story is that conversations I’ve been having about the project have taken on much more focus. I’m testing hypotheses from my story, or asking about specific assumptions I’d made in my plans. Even though in theory I knew little more than a month before, I’ve been feeling more confident in my assertions, and what I want from each conversation.
I’ve no doubt that every one of these details I’ve figured out thus far may well evolve majorly in later conversations, but now I have a base on which to iterate. I’ve been in and around startups before, but knowing this and living it are quite different – experienced entrepreneurs are probably used to this part of the process, but for me it was a big change embracing the uncertainty and hoping for the best!
So now I have a mission, a narrative, and momentum – all vital when working on a big project alone. Part of the reason I’ve struggled to find time to put out a new post here is I’ve been busy putting together timelines, pitch decks and rough business plans for the first time – an exciting but time consuming process!
What’s next?
Now I need to maintain that momentum, iterating my proposition until it settles, as well as finding others interested in joining this journey. To that end I’m talking to everyone I can to get feedback and sense check my ideas. If you want to know more, please do reach out – comments and constructive criticism on this is very welcome, particularly if you have a background in aerospace, entrepreneurship or both!
The two primary areas I’m focusing on going forward are team and traction. I may have done a lot of research and initial testing, but I have no formal aero background and little concrete to show – I need to change that. On the team front, I’m actively seeking co-founders, ideally with a background either in engineering or commercial aerospace. I’m very focused on building a diverse team – aerospace, much like tech, is predominantly white men, and I’d like to build an environment that’s not a monoculture. This project is definitely trying to challenge the status quo of aviation, and so I’ll need a team that can think outside the box!
On the traction front, I’m pulling together my ideas and tools around aircraft design into a concrete plan – I have what I hope is a somewhat novel approach to designing and de-risking the complexities of the blended-wing body design, but I need to get an MVP together and see if it actually holds water (I know it’s a boat metaphor, but go with me here). I was originally going to dive into that in this post, but it’s a complex and involved topic, so I’ll save that for next time (hopefully soon, but no promises on when!).
I’m also weighing up accelerator and venture builder programs to see if those could help speed progress on any of these fronts. I’ve already applied to one, but if any of you know of programs that you think could fit this idea at this early stage, please do let me know!
Thanks for reading, and hopefully I’ll be back with more before too long!
Oli